Who will win the Premier League title race? As of now.

By Jose Santiago


So far, it has been quite an interesting 2023-24 season for the English Premier League with an exciting title race. As we enter the final 10 fixtures of the season, there’s just one point separating Liverpool and Manchester City from Arsenal which makes each match crucial to gain an advantage ahead of a tough series of fixtures. 



After the drama at the end of the showdown between Liverpool and Manchester City at Anfield on Sunday, Arsenal still remained on top of the table following their 2-1 game against Brentford at Emirates on Saturday, in which Kai Havertz scored a late game goal to secure the win. 


Now, Arsenal has 64 points in which they displayed an overall dominant 70 goals in the total 28 matches they’ve played, compared to Liverpool’s 65 goals and Manchester City’s 63 goals. With this, the Gunners have well more of a healthy goal difference advantage over their potential contenders which can prove important if the title race continues to be tightly knit. 


In addition, Arsenal has been the most composed team with a run of 8 consecutive league wins, including their 3-1 win against Liverpool in February 2024. In fact, their last 8 matches were all scored in an assertive fashion by the Gunners. 


Arsenal will not be in league action until their match against Manchester City on March 31st, which will be a test of their composure. Though, beyond their game against Manchester City, the Gunners have a series of difficult away fixtures. They are yet to face Tottenham, Manchester United, Brighton, and Wolves. 



Amidst their long injury list, it seems that Liverpool is still well and ready to continue their excruciating battle to clinch the championship title. For the Reds, this title would be another league title under their belt since the 2019-20 season. 


Their game against Manchester City at Anfield proved to be a difficult task with many of their key players injured such as: Trent Alexander-Arnold, Diogo Jota, Thiago Alcantara, and Ibrahima Konate. The Reds suffered a huge blow before the game, but managed to draw against a powerful Manchester City. It was Alexis Mac Allister who scored home a pivotal penalty in the second half in response to Manchester City’s John Stone and his goal in the first half.


Overall, Liverpool has kept their composure throughout the season as they have the least amount of losses than any other team. At most, the Reds have had at least a loss and 2 draws in their last 8 matches, in which they scored relatively consistently. However, their injury list limits their options in regards to who starts or who is on the pitch. Despite Van Dijk’s excellent form, there are still remaining doubts about Liverpool’s defense with Ibrahima Konate suffering from injury.


Despite their long injury list, a key player in Liverpool’s attacking firepower, Mohammed Salah, shouldn’t be overlooked following his substitution at Anfield on Sunday. This hints at his potential availability to start, which may prove key in upcoming matches. In addition, it could mean that Liverpool could return back after the international break with great potential to take the title.


At the moment, Liverpool sits second on the table with 64 points. Regardless of the fact that Liverpool shares the same amount of points as Arsenal, the only factor separating them is their goal differences. However, the Reds will also face a tough series of fixtures against notable teams such as: Manchester United, Tottenham, and Aston Villa (their toughest remaining ones).


Manchester City

Without a doubt, Manchester City has been faced with a tough dilemma that places them third on the table with 63 points so far. The defending champions have always been the clear fan favorites before the season had started, but they’re having a tough time withstanding the pressure from Arsenal and Liverpool as the league title is on their hands. For the Citizens, if they win it all, it would be the fourth consecutive league title under their belt.


Moreover, Manchester City has been relatively consistent with 6 league wins and 2 draws in their last 8 matches with such ferocity. Their injury list is now cleared, Kevin de Bruyne and Erling Haaland, for example, are finally back as the dynamic duo that we know them to be. With this, it sets a much needed confidence that is required for City’s final push to clinch the title. 


But even without De Bruyne and Haaland, City’s in-depth strength is quite outstanding, allowing them to win league matches without their key players. In this case, Manchester City may have the stronger team compared to the two in terms of depth, but Arsenal and Liverpool have emerged as a significant hurdle to get over for the Citizens. But their resilience is what helped them recover from far worse situations that they found themselves in earlier in the season.


Despite Manchester City having a strong attacking firepower, their defense has been particularly vulnerable lately, compared to previous seasons. Having to concede 28 goals in their last 28 matches, is conceding at a relatively high rate. Likewise, there were more instances of defensive vulnerability. A great example of this was the number of chances they had given up against Liverpool on Sunday. This gives the impression that City has been slowly creating a bad habit of conceding their opponents’ first shot on goal - most of their games have been like that recently. With this in mind, there’s a good chance that this weakness may cost them ultimately ending their streak of consecutive Premier League titles.


As of now, Manchester City will have a rough following series of fixtures after the March international break. Most notably, their challenging fixtures against Arsenal, Aston Villa, and Tottenham.

So, who will be best placed to be on top?

According to Opta, a statistics company that focuses on making sports predictions, Manchester City will continue to remain most likely champions as of now. In which Arsenal has gone up to 18.8% to win the league (a rise of almost 6%). Liverpool has dropped very slightly from 35.6% to 35.3%. But, Man City is dropping below 50% as they slide from 51.4% to 45.9%.


The statistics were updated following last weekend’s games.


As the race for the Premier League title intensifies and the contenders face their final challenges, the stage is set for a thrilling conclusion. With each fixture growing in significance, the battle between Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City promises to keep fans on the edge of their seats until the end.


Header courtesy of TV Insider

Thumbnail courtesy of Sky Sports

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